The downfall of Solyndra is a sad
event for its employees, its investors, and the town of Fremont. For the
industry, though, it represents another, albeit painful, step in the evolution
of the solar industry. Because it is a young industry, there is a multitude of
variables which are shaping its development: PV material costs, natural
disasters (Fukushima), man-made disasters (mercurial government trade and
energy policy), the cost of traditional energy, and so on. It would do well to
follow the lead of a number of industrial models when charting its course for
the long term. The two obvious ones are the construction industry and the
energy industry.
As a long time member of the
roofing industry, I expected Solyndra’s demise to derive from the same source I
see impacting the entire ballasted solar panel industry: ballasted systems are
simply not a good idea from the perspective of anyone in the construction
trades. Roofs are not intended to have things left on them as an
afterthought. They can be heavy with inappropriate point loads, they
impede adequate flow of water, they can cause depressions in the roof membrane
resulting in ponding and eventual membrane deterioration – I could go on, but
you get the picture. Roofs are not built to accommodate this stuff. If a
ballasted system can result in problems down the road due to roof leaks, or
becomes a major pain when re-roofing is called for (don’t forget that one – all
roofs get repaired and replaced) the short term savings of the ballast purchase
pale compared to remediation costs. So, at the end of the day, I believe that,
apart from the other influences resulting in the early demise of Solyndra, the
company was going to go the way I fully expect almost all ballasted systems to
go. Remember the Hummer? Cool look and technology, but it had no place on
America’s roads or in America’s economy.
With regards to the energy
industry, consumers and businesses have only fleeting interest in the “wow”
factor of new and cool energy sources. Ultimately, they want reliability,
to minimize their energy costs, not think about where it is coming from, or
about maintenance. If solar costs too much or is too much hassle it
simply can’t fly. But the “cost” problem is more nuanced than many in our
industry acknowledge. When a power plant is built anywhere, it is
designed to generate power literally for generations, and can be expensive.
A focus on using cheap equipment or materials might save money in the
short-term, but may end up costing the plant and its customers in the long
run. So when solar installers sell systems, they should think like
builders; design and build it to last for generations.
Finally, it is absurd to think that
the solar industry will or should ever be disassociated from government
intervention, support and direction. Unfortunately Solyndra is going to be used
as an example of government’s inability to choose winners and losers. The
venture capital industry understands this kind of investment strategy very
well. They know that some or most of the investments they make will fail, but
they remain in business (and many make boatloads of money) because of the
winners they choose. And remember, there was a lot of venture capital
invested with Solyndra. Were the venture capital guys wrong, or was it
part of the landscape? With something as nationally important as energy
production, the government cannot sit on the sidelines. They will make
investment mistakes, but they will also choose winners. Consider the aerospace
industry: without government support and cooperation (choosing winners) we
would not have a Boeing—our biggest exporter and a massive employer.
There is not a single significant energy source used today which has not been
subject to government involvement. The idea that solar should be able to
stand on its own absent any incentives, directives or regulation is sheer
free-market naiveté. You have heard of the special treatment that the oil,
coal, nuclear and hydro industries receive. To expect solar to be different is
to place it at a completely unreasonable disadvantage. Although it was
the beneficiary of substantial government assistance, Solyndra failed. That
failure is already being used as a political tool to discredit the current
administration. Our industry’s efforts
in this area are fundamentally non-political in nature, and we need to make
sure our politicians, while making political points, don’t throw the baby out
with the bathwater.
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